|
Ecological forecasting uses knowledge of physics, ecology and physiology to predict how ecosystems will change in the future in response to environmental factors such as climate change. The ultimate goal of the approach is to provide people such as resource managers and designers of marine reserves with information that they can then use to respond, in advance, to future changes,〔Clark et al. 2001〕 a form of adaptation to global warming. One of the most important environmental factors for organisms today is global warming. Most physiological processes are affected by temperature, and so even small changes in weather and climate can lead to large changes in the growth, reproduction and survival of animals and plants. The scientific consensus〔 〕 is that the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases due to human activity caused most of the warming observed since the start of the industrial era. These changes are in turn affecting human and natural ecosystems.〔CCSP 2008〕 One major challenge is to predict where, when and with what magnitude changes are likely to occur so that we can mitigate or at least prepare for them.〔 Ecological forecasting applies existing knowledge of how animals and plants interact with their physical environment〔Kearney 2006〕 to ask how changes in environmental factors might result in changes to the ecosystems as a whole.〔Gilman et al. 2006〕〔Wethey and Woodin 2008〕 ==Approaches== * Palaeobiology modeling: uses fossil and phylogenetic evidence of biodiversity in the past to project the trajectory of biodiversity in the future. Simple plots can be constructed and then adjusted based on the varying quality of the fossil record. * Climate envelope modeling: relies on statistical correlations between existing species distributions and environmental variables to define a species' tolerance.〔Pearson and Dawson 2003〕 ''Envelopes'' of tolerance are then drawn around existing ranges. By predicting future levels of factors such as temperature, rainfall, and salinity, new range boundaries are then predicted. These methods are good for examining large numbers of species, but are likely not a good means of predicting effects at fine scales. * Niche level modeling: is a newer method which links physiological information about a species to models of animal and plant body temperature.〔Kearney et al. 2008〕〔Helmuth et al. 2006〕 In contrast to “climate envelope” approaches, environmental variables are predicted at the level of the niche and are therefore much more exact.〔 However, the approach is also usually more time consuming.〔 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Ecological forecasting」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
|